Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 71.4%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado30/10/22, 16:44 UTC1/01/00, 08:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100
Manifold MarketsLeading dark matter explanation by January 2045
Manifold MarketsIs volcanism caused by dark matter?
Manifold MarketsWill Tomonori Totoni's claim of dark matter detection be broadly accepted before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegras
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter
- This resolves once we have a definitive explanation for dark matter that is not contested by any significant fraction of the physics community.
- In the event that the phrase "dark matter" comes to mean something else (such as our observational methods improving to the point where we can directly detect some forms of dark matter and we no longer call them "dark"), the 2022 definition is what will matter for the purposes of resolving this market.
- In the event that dark matter doesn't exist (e.g. modified Newtonian dynamics), this resolves N/A. I'll be pretty liberal in terms of what counts as "matter" though, in the event of disagreement over whether some new particle should qualify.