Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 90.5%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado10/12/23, 22:10 UTC2/01/32, 06:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Leading dark matter explanation by January 2045
Manifold MarketsWill the nature of dark matter be known by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Dark Matter still be real at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegras
Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).
- This market resolves to YES if two or more studies are published in either Science or the Nature family of journals by Jan. 1, 2032 that support the hypothesis that large igneous provinces are triggered by dark matter.
- The link between dark matter and volcanism must be one of the core parts of the article.
- (that is, it doesn't count if the hypothesis is just mentioned off-hand).
Mercados abertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 226,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 125,2 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 108,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is volcanism caused by dark matter??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 91% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is volcanism caused by dark matter? é resolvido?
- Is volcanism caused by dark matter? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2032.
- Como Is volcanism caused by dark matter? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).