Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79.9%
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
3/09/26, 01:24 UTC3/09/00, 01:20 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if a meaningful general formulation of Alexander Vilenkin's tunneling wave function of the universe—valid beyond highly symmetric, finite-dimensional "minisuperspace" toy models—is published in a reputable, peer-reviewed physics journal and achieves broad consensus within the quantum cosmology community prior to Vilenkin's death.
- The market will resolve to NO upon the death of Alexander Vilenkin (born May 13, 1949) if no such general formulation has been established and accepted by the physics community, or if the tunneling wave function remains mathematically ill-defined or restricted to simplified toy models.
- Resolution Guidelines:
- "Well-defined" requires a formulation that is proven to be mathematically consistent and free of pathological divergences or runaway perturbation instabilities in a general (non-perturbative) framework of quantum gravity.
- "Broad consensus" will be evaluated based on review papers, citations, and consensus among leading researchers in quantum cosmology (e.g., through prominent publications in journals like Physical Review D, Journal of High Energy Physics, or Classical and Quantum Gravity).
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 80% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? é resolvido?
- Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? deverá ser resolvido em 3 de setembro de 2100.
- Como Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria