Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 77%
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado29/06/26, 00:09 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- Even upon the signing of such agreement, if there is the exchanging of the bombing, attacks, blockades, assassinations, drone striking, jibs and the jabs, etc. within a 45-day period, it is considered NOT A FUCKING PERMANENT PEACE DEAL.
- It should be very easy to be understanding how this could be resolving.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] é resolvido?
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.