Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffEconomiaMacro e economiaAçõesPolítica dos EUANegócios e empresasPolítica comercial2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 94.5%
Não 94.5%Previsores
33
Tipo de pergunta
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado10/01/26, 06:42 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
