Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffEconomiaMacro & EconomyEquitiesUS PoliticsBusiness & CorporateTrade Policy3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 91%
Previsores
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Tipo de pergunta
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
10/01/26, 06:42 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Us market crash in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 91% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Us market crash in 2026? é resolvido?
- Us market crash in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Us market crash in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria
