Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 55.3%
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65
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado18/10/23, 16:53 UTC20/10/32, 03:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsWill LPL Financial Holdings Inc (LPLA) be added to the S&P 500 by the end of 2026?
ForecastExWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRegras
As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'
- "I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market.
- Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
- I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is.
- Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
- This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).
Mercados abertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- € 12,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 248,7 mil
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 96,6 mil
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) é resolvido?
- Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) deverá ser resolvido em 20 de outubro de 2032.
- Como Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'