Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualExplicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) 92.4%Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado4/03/26, 18:36 UTC1/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?
- Independent.
- Each answer resolves YES/NO on its own. “At least once” means any single qualifying occurrence in the window triggers YES.
- Only publicly observable official statements/actions and authoritative technical bodies/monitoring (or reporting that clearly cites them) count.
- Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran)
- Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement uses explicit nuclear wording (e.g., “nuclear,” “atomic,” “nuclear weapons,” “nuclear forces”) and also names the other party (“Iran” or “United States/U.S./America”) in the same statement.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
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- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
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- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
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- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
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- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
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- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) em 92% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 é resolvido?
- U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?