Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
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9
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado22/10/25, 21:06 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.
- This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude.
- This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
- There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.