Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.5%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 38 minutos
14/10/26, 10:30 UTC31/10/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if an official de Jure AND de facto bilateral ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia (or the Saudi-led coalition) and the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) is publicly announced before November 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- To resolve YES, the ceasefire agreement must be confirmed by official statements from both parties or by an official mediating body, such as the UN Special Envoy for Yemen or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Oman.
- Unilateral announcements: A unilateral declaration of a ceasefire by either side without mutual agreement or acceptance by the opposing party does not qualify and will resolve NO.
- Localized or humanitarian truces: Informal, unconfirmed reports, or limited local pauses in fighting do not qualify unless formally framed as a bilateral ceasefire agreement by both entities.
- If no formal ceasefire agreement is reached before November 1, 2026, the market resolves NO.
