Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 97.1%
Previsores
27
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado17/11/25, 01:40 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Vladimir Putin dies by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible international news sources confirming his death, such as major news agencies (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.).
- The market resolves NO if Putin remains alive through the end of 2026.
- Putin turned 73 in October 2025.
- For approximately 20 years, multiple sources have regularly reported that Putin is weeks or months away from death or medical incapacity, though U.S. intelligence officials have stated there is no evidence that Putin is seriously ill.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Putin dies by end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 97% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Putin dies by end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Putin dies by end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Putin dies by end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria