Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 97%
Previsores
41
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
3/07/25, 17:16 UTC4/07/30, 17:03 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 3, 2025, and July 3, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war, resulting in at least one fatality.
- The detonation must be confirmed by credible sources such as major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) or official government statements.
- Tests, accidents, or non-fatal incidents will not count towards resolution.
- The risk of nuclear conflict has been a subject of extensive analysis.
- Estimates vary, but some experts suggest a 1% annual probability of nuclear war, accumulating to a significant risk over multiple years.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Nuclear war in next 5 years??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 97% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Nuclear war in next 5 years? é resolvido?
- Nuclear war in next 5 years? deverá ser resolvido em 4 de julho de 2030.
- Como Nuclear war in next 5 years? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria