Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2026-12-01 80.8%+30.8ptLíder entre 7 opções
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+30.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
9/09/26, 17:40 UTC1/12/26, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date?
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KalshiRegras
The '+' means any version at or above 1.4 counts: if Meta skips 1.4 and releases Muse Spark 1.5 or Muse Spark 2, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Muse Spark 1.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.0pt58%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt21%
- Grok+0.6pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 93,6 mil
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+7.5pt76%
- 2026+27.5pt48%
- September 30, 2026+10.0pt19%
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+27.0pt99%
- Video+27.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 mais resultados
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.0pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.8pt3%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 45,2 mil
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date?
- A Manifold Markets cota Before 2026-12-01 em 81% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date é resolvido?
- Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date deverá ser resolvido em 1 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The '+' means any version at or above 1.4 counts: if Meta skips 1.4 and releases Muse Spark 1.5 or Muse Spark 2, that still counts for the purpose of this market.