Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMerch store 100%Líder entre 31 opções
Previsores
208
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+1.2 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado5/01/26, 23:40 UTC1/01/27, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.
- (External PRs that have been merged will count.)
- Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: Must be a real subscription (not a one-time purchase without automatic monthly payments).
- Can potentially be in Mana rather than real currency.
- Update 2026-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: This answer does not need to be implemented by the Manifold team directly — external PRs that have been merged will also count toward resolution.
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 87,4 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 228,5 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 239,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 53,3 mil
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Manifold features launched in 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota Merch store em 100% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Manifold features launched in 2026 é resolvido?
- Manifold features launched in 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Manifold features launched in 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.