Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
GeopolíticaOne-OffIASaúde e medicina10aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 21:13 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 92.1%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado16/08/26, 04:05 UTC31/12/36, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, for any calendar year from 2029 through 2034 (inclusive), official CDC mortality statistics show that the majority (greater than 50%) of all deaths in the United States (excluding deaths directly resulting from war or combat) are classified under "external causes of morbidity and mortality" rather than "natural causes" (diseases and clinical syndromes).
- The market will reference the final mortality data from the CDC WONDER database or the official National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR).
- Specifically, the YES threshold is met if:
- The total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapter XX ("External causes of morbidity and mortality" codes V01–Y89) is greater than the total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapters I through XVIII (codes A00–R99, which encompass infectious diseases, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory illness, diabetes, dementia, and other physical/mental diseases).
- Deaths directly from war/combat (e.g., ICD-10 codes Y36, U01.1, U02) will be subtracted from both totals before comparison.