In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
CiênciaTecnologia4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 07:00 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNot demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 31.6%Líder entre 5 opções
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12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado7/01/26, 14:44 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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📌 Description :
- This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.
- A valid demonstration must include:
- • Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),
- • Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),
- • Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).
