In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
CiênciaTecnologia4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNot demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 31.6%Líder entre 5 opções
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12
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multiple choice
Metodologia
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado7/01/26, 14:44 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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📌 Description :
- This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.
- A valid demonstration must include:
- • Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),
- • Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),
- • Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated??
- A Manifold Markets cota Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 em 32% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated? é resolvido?
- In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: 📌 Description :