Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2027 35.9%Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+4.4 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 28 minutos
12/09/25, 21:00 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.
- The NBER is the official arbiter of US business cycles and typically announces recession start dates months after they actually begin.
- This market will resolve to the option that corresponds to when the NBER declares the recession started, not when they make the announcement.
- Resolution will be based on official NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 541,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 30,7 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 334,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- € 612,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,9 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,3 mil
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will the next US recession begin??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2027 em 36% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will the next US recession begin? é resolvido?
- In what year will the next US recession begin? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como In what year will the next US recession begin? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.