KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Q1 2026 1%-0.1ptLíder entre 6 opções
Qualidade do mercado
60 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
10 €
Liquidez
154,3 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
2.7 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
19/03/25, 14:00 UTC31/12/26, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:NBER
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt64.7%
- No change-12.0pt34.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 97,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,8 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 702,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 91 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 400 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-8.0pt26%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 34,5 mil
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,3 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No97%
- Yes-3.0pt3%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,9 mil
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- China unemployment rate in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will the next US recession start??
- A Kalshi cota Q1 2026 em 1% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will the next US recession start? é resolvido?
- When will the next US recession start? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como When will the next US recession start? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.