Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOther 54%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado6/03/22, 18:15 UTC1/01/00, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
0.1%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketMore white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRegras
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/
- Acceptable answers: full year, in format YYYY, i.e. "2022"
- Resolves to the year corresponding to the resolution made on the above Metaculus question. i.e. if the question resolves to "Mar 24, 2028", this market resolves to "2028".
Mercados abertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 541,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 30,7 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 334,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- € 612,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,9 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,3 mil
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur??
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 54% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? é resolvido?
- In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2100.
- Como In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/