Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2026 96.9%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+6.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado13/07/25, 22:10 UTC1/01/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketRegras
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2026 em 97% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? é resolvido?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.