Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: 2026 (97.6%)
Resolvido: 27 de out. de 2026, 15:06
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Resultado Vencedor
2026
A 7 dias
—
A 24 horas
—
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
20250.6%
202697.6%
20270.7%
20280.6%
20290.4%
Ganhou
Perdeu
Perdeu
Perdeu
Perdeu
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsWill AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.