Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2027 62.3%Líder entre 8 opções
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3
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
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Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado13/07/25, 18:02 UTC1/01/33, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.
- It extracts 102 optimisation tasks from the commit histories of 10 production code-bases spanning C, C++, Rust, Go, Java, and Python.
- For each task the agent receives the full repo, a correctness test-suite, and a runtime profiler, then must submit a single patch that (i) keeps all tests green and (ii) reaches ≥ 95 % of the speed-up achieved by the human expert commit.
- The headline metric, Opt @ 1, is simply the fraction of tasks cleared on the very first try; no retries, no cherry-picking.
- All patches are rebuilt and timed in a sandbox so scores are reproducible and publicly displayed on the GSO leaderboard.
- State of play (July 2025)
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2027 em 62% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark? é resolvido?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2033.
- Como In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.