In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
One-OffIATecnologia2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2026 93.6%Líder entre 8 opções
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9
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multiple choice
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Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado7/07/25, 07:13 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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0.5%
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SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.
- Each task corresponds to a real GitHub bug-fix; success is measured only by whether the submitted patch makes all repository tests pass.
- Reaching 95 % would imply an agent that can reliably read unfamiliar codebases, localise bugs, implement multi-file patches, and satisfy rigorous unit tests—approaching or surpassing strong human-engineer performance on day-to-day bug-fixing.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the year-bracket in which a fully automated AI system first records an average accuracy of 95 % or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark.
- Verification – The claim must be confirmed by either
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2026 em 94% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? é resolvido?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.