In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
One-OffIATecnologia2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2026 93.6%Líder entre 8 opções
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9
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multiple choice
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Variação 7d
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado7/07/25, 07:13 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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Regras
SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.
- Each task corresponds to a real GitHub bug-fix; success is measured only by whether the submitted patch makes all repository tests pass.
- Reaching 95 % would imply an agent that can reliably read unfamiliar codebases, localise bugs, implement multi-file patches, and satisfy rigorous unit tests—approaching or surpassing strong human-engineer performance on day-to-day bug-fixing.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the year-bracket in which a fully automated AI system first records an average accuracy of 95 % or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark.
- Verification – The claim must be confirmed by either
