Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
One-OffIATecnologiaCiência3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 99%
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16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado29/12/24, 08:34 UTC31/12/29, 07:59 UTC
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We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.
- The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory.
- Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days.
- FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination.
- Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community.
- As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 99% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians.