Previsão da comunidade atual
2025-2034 30.7%+0.2ptLíder entre 6 opções
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22
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
+0.2 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
23/03/25, 14:56 UTC1/01/01, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
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PolymarketRegras
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2025-2034 em 31% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? é resolvido?
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2101.
- Como In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.