Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual🇮🇷 Iran 78.4%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
41
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado4/03/26, 12:37 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill there be a nuclear war before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill there be nuclear powered supersonic airplanes by 2100?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegras
If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't.
- Otherwise, all options resolve N/A. Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Nuclear tests (non-combat detonations) count toward resolution, not just wartime use.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who??
- A Manifold Markets cota 🇮🇷 Iran em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? é resolvido?
- If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't.