Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)?

A Manifold Markets cota No em 86.9% em 31 de outubro de 2026.

If the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)

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Não 86.9%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 20 minutos

16/01/25, 13:52 UTC1/01/40, 22:59 UTC

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This is a question related to fast(hard) or slow(soft) AGI takeoff as well as the chance of economic disasters causing unemployment above 20%.

The question will be resolved based on the U-3 unemployment rate.
In the case of fast or semi-fast AI takeoff I would assume that this would cause unemployment to shoot up rapidly reaching 80% within 2 years.
Note that if there is some economic disaster (similar to COVID) which leads to a U-3 rate above 20% before AI take-off (and the U-3 rate does not grow to 80% within 2 years) this question will resolve NO, so take that into account in your predictions.
The question resolves YES if the U-3 unemployment rate reaches 80% within 2 years of it reaching 20% for the FIRST time.
If the U-3 rate reaches 20% and does not cross 80% within 2 years the question will resolve NO.