If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente Médio1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 69.2%
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Atualizado há 21 horas
Desatualizado6/05/26, 23:11 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.
- Resolves NO if the regime falls by Dec 31, 2027 AND consensus attributes the proximate trigger to internal causes alone: domestic protest, internal succession dispute, or economic collapse without external action.
- Resolves N/A if the regime does not fall by Dec 31, 2027 (parent question resolves NO).
- “Proximate trigger” = the precipitating event in the final 30 days before the regime’s loss of sovereign authority.
- Background pressure (sanctions in place for years, ongoing protests, etc.) does not count as the trigger unless it sharply escalates in that final window.