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Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado6/05/26, 23:11 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
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PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.
- Resolves NO if the regime falls by Dec 31, 2027 AND consensus attributes the proximate trigger to internal causes alone: domestic protest, internal succession dispute, or economic collapse without external action.
- Resolves N/A if the regime does not fall by Dec 31, 2027 (parent question resolves NO).
- “Proximate trigger” = the precipitating event in the final 30 days before the regime’s loss of sovereign authority.
- Background pressure (sanctions in place for years, ongoing protests, etc.) does not count as the trigger unless it sharply escalates in that final window.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
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- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 512,6 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
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- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
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POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 9,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 266,5 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 56,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 170,4 mil
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 50% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? é resolvido?
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.