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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Política
  3. Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

2.5% (24h)One-OffPolíticaLatin America6m
PolymarketPolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 24%+0.0%
Qualidade do mercado

80 / 100

Alta qualidade
Volume 24h

1,2 mil €

Liquidez

31,7 mil €

Alta liquidez
Compra / Venda

23.0% / 24.0%

Spread

4.3%

Spread moderado
Variação 7d

+3.0%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 4 minutos

11/03/26, 0:0031/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes24%

Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba.
  • This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC.
  • A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
  • Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice.

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Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba.
  • This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC.
  • A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
  • Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice.