How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / Ucrânia2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Less than a day 35.9%Líder entre 6 opções
Less than a day 35.9%Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado4/09/24, 08:14 UTC21/12/28, 07:59 UTC
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How long will it take for the US to lift/raise/release/end its economic sanctions on Russia following the end of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine?
- Clock starts when Russia and Ukraine credibly officially agree to end the conflict & announce that to the world.
- If there isn't a nice, clean, official pronouncement, (eg: a temporary cease-fire keeps getting extended) clock starts when armies have withdrawn (when armies are out of each other's territories & not massed threateningly at the border) and air strikes have stopped.
- 'Sanctions lifted' will use the same resolution vibe as this other market (but not chatbot adjudication):
- ...largely lifted (let's say more than 80 percent) ... compared to the baseline of today (2024-06-30).
- Data over which to to evaluate this vibe: See the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control's Ukraine-/Russia-related Sanctions page and Sectoral Sanctions Identifications List which is currently a 185-page PDF (other formats) with 295 entities with Russian addresses.
