Previsão da comunidade atual
0 89%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-2.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado28/10/23, 12:44 UTC31/12/00, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsThe legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhat years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Manifold MarketsIf the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegras
How many Putnam competitions will AI not win after winning IMO and before winning its first Putnam?
- Winning a competition means getting an equal or greater score than the top human participating.
- Only competitions after market creation count.
- The AI has to be under the same time constraints as the participants.
- Allowed scoring is either just as humans (text input and human-scored text output) or it can get formalized input and have formally verified output, then a solution gets full score if it's correct and minimum score otherwise.
- Resolves N/A at close date if not resolved by that time.
