Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
IACommodities
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 11:00 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual>= 25 years 41.6%Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado26/06/23, 18:52 UTC1/01/00, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
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KalshiRegras
This market concerns about two events * A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
- * B: When will AI complete the IMO grand challenge, by getting gold on the international mathematics olympiad producing machine-checkable proofs, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-imo-grand-challenge-be-com
- This market asks what the duration of time is after event A and before event B. This market resolves to the shortest correct answer.
- For example if it takes 2 months, it will resolve to "< 4 months", because that answer mentions a shorter time frame than the answer "< 1 year".
- If events A and B happen at the same time, or if B happens before A (which should not happen), then this resolves "< 1 week".
- It will resolve to ">= 25 years" if event B has not happened 25 years after event A happened.