Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 03:53 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
2025 100%Líder entre 6 opções
2025 100%Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado18/01/24, 01:09 UTC2/01/30, 00:35 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?
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PolymarketRegras
A year resolves yes, if any AI program can get enough points to win at least bronze on the International Mathematics Olympiad of that year.
- The years are resolved completely independent of each other.
- If a neutral party (e.g. from the AIMO prize) judges AI performance in this respect, I will defer to them.
- Otherwise, I will judge myself.
- If I judge, my main requirements are that the AI was written and trained (if applicable) before the IMO, though it need not be released before the IMO.
- The AI should produce a proof that can be checked within a reasonable time by either a human or a proof assistant (e.g. Lean).
