Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 54.8% em 1 de novembro de 2026.

Quando Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero? é resolvido?

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero? deverá ser resolvido em 11 de novembro de 2032.

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Atualizado há 49 minutos

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11/12/22, 06:03 UTC11/11/32, 23:59 UTC

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This question resolves after an AI first gets IMO Gold, when a paper or preprint is first published describing the functioning of the algorithm.

It resolves YES if that paper cites the paper "A general reinforcement learning algorithm that masters chess, shogi, and Go through self-play", by Silver et al.
I will default to whatever version of the paper has been most recently released two weeks after the announcement of the achievement of the gold medal.
Close date updated to 2032-11-11 3:59 pm