Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado5/09/25, 19:24 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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KalshiRegras
The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.
- By "substantially eliminated" I mean that over 90% of Hezbollah's weapons have been either destroyed, confiscated, or voluntary relinquished to the Lebanese government by the close date, and the group no longer poses a military threat to the State of Lebanon or credibly resist the Lebanese armed forces.
- I will make this determination by studying mainstream news sources (e.g., NYT, CNN) for information regarding Hezbollah's weapons.
- 1) If there is ongoing armed conflict between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on the close date, the market will resolve NO, unless that armed conflict is at the "mopping up" phase by the LAF.
- 2) If some weapons have been relinquished but there is a dispute as to whether a substantial amount remains hidden in Hezbollah's arsenal, I will base my analysis on whether Hezbollah still appears to act as if it is an organization with a substantial military wing.
- For example, if there is still some terroritory that the LAF declines to enter due to it being a Hezbollah stronghold, that would strongly indicate that Hezbollah still has some weaponry and likely be considered a NO.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? é resolvido?
- Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The market resolves YES if Hezbollah's arsenal is substantially eliminated by the end of 2026.