Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 56.3%
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29
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
4/07/26, 13:37 UTC31/07/30, 18:30 UTC
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At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire
- (Gemini AI's Version)
- If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or its widely recognized equivalent certifies any individual's net worth at or above $2.0 Trillion (USD) at any point before July 1, 2030, will the Metaculus community consensus probability for a 'Generation Starship launch by 2150' close above 1.0% on July 31, 2030?
- Update 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the referenced Metaculus question is never asked, the market will resolve to NO.
- Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the conditions of the market are not met, it will resolve to N/A.
Mercados abertos
AI
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
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- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Generation Starship By 2150?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Generation Starship By 2150 é resolvido?
- Generation Starship By 2150 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de julho de 2030.
- Como Generation Starship By 2150 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: At the rate that wealth and wealth concentration is expanding, there will be enough wealth with the wealthiest person by 2110 that will be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars that building a generation starship will be like embarking on a 5 decade welfare program of a large economy of today, except in the hands of a committed multicentitrillionaire