Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027 80%Líder entre 22 opções
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+30.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 33 minutos
19/08/26, 13:4831/12/28, 23:59
Tendências
Regras
Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at @/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
- Feel free to suggest other projects that might be added.
- Market clarifications 01 Cybercab is any Tesla 2 seater vehicle i.e. doesn't matter if called different things in different places.
- Operating means autonomously without any Tesla safety monitor or driver in vehicles.
- Less than 10 is just testing, 10 or more operating is needed to be considered operating.
- Robotaxi means available for public hire.
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 255,6 mil
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 143,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 130,5 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 mais resultados
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 7,8 mi
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Elon projects dates megamarket?
- A Manifold Markets cota 03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027 em 80% em 21 de agosto de 2026.
- Quando Elon projects dates megamarket é resolvido?
- Elon projects dates megamarket deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Elon projects dates megamarket é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at @/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket