Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 59.3%
Não 59.3%Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 28 minutos
1/08/26, 16:23 UTC31/12/59, 23:00 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Will we find evidence that we are living in a simulation? I will resolve this market if we find strong evidence in the future that we are living in a simulation.
- If its not obvious in 2060 I will either do a rough literature search, or pay someone else to do it (at least 5-10 hours) and then resolve the market with the probability that reflects my best estimate.
- I will be 59 by then, so likely still alive in most future branches that matter.
- If I die, this market will resolve ambigous.
- Dec 17, 8:26pm: Is the simulation hypothesis true? → Do we live in a simulation?
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
