Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)
One-OffCiênciaSaúde e medicina2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 20:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%Líder entre 6 opções
Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%Previsores
26
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado8/01/25, 14:26 UTC1/01/27, 00:00 UTC
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Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript
- This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.
- The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication.
- Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable.
- If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.
- Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.
