Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

One-OffCiência Health & Medicine3m

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%

Líder entre 6 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 15 horas

Desatualizado

8/01/25, 14:26 UTC1/01/27, 00:00 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Before 2026

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Regras

Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript

This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.
The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication.
Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable.
If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.
Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.

Reportar um problema de dados deste mercado

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

One-OffCiência Health & Medicine3m

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%

Líder entre 6 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 15 horas

Desatualizado

8/01/25, 14:26 UTC1/01/27, 00:00 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Before 2026

Mercados Relacionados

Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.

Will a peer-reviewed paper analyzing UAP sensor data be published in a Nature-family journal before January 1, 2027?

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Peer-reviewed paper in 2026 shows mycelial compounds effective against respiratory diseases?

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Will China unveil a peer reviewed surgical cure for Alzheimers by the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Kalshi

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Polymarket

When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?

Kalshi

Regras

Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript

This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.
The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication.
Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable.
If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.
Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.

Reportar um problema de dados deste mercado

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)?: A Manifold Markets cota Never or after 1/1/2030 em 83% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
Quando Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set) é resolvido?: Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set) deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
Como Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set) é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Perguntas frequentes

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