Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 73.9%
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17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado20/03/26, 23:07 UTC1/01/31, 00:04 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.
- Both a nuclear first strike and a response to Israeli nuclear weapons use count as yes.
- Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 74% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel? é resolvido?
- Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.