Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
US PoliticsPolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaMiddle EastRussia / UkraineEurope5m
PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atualSim 7%
Qualidade do mercado
71 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
123,4 €
Liquidez
14,4 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
7.2% / 7.4%
Spread
2.8%
Spread apertadoVariação 7d
+0.1%
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 21 minutos
13/11/25, 23:1231/12/26, 0:00
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Yes7%
Tendência de volume
$1402 de jul.21d de dados26 de jul.
Mercados Relacionados
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
792,9 €Sim: 71%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
First overseas visit of the next UK PM?
215,8 €USA 🇺🇸: 5.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
European military action against Iran by which date?
13 mil €August 31: 6%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWho will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?
35,2 €Donald Trump: 95%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
7,7 mil €Yulia Navalnaya: 11%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
15,8 €Sim: 12.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSAtivos nestes tópicos
Notícias Relacionadas
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk
Russia is legalizing crypto for everyone except RussiansCrypto NewsRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution.
- Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.
- Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".