Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNot by 2040 77%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
43
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado28/09/23, 19:40 UTC2/01/40, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.
- It resolves to the one option representing the current time period when this happens, or "the named outcome" if this does not happen.
- I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia.
- I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree, and am open to suggestions of which ones to trust.
- If Manifold adds the ability to close options early, I will do so when a date passes without any consensus.
- I will not bet in this market, except to set the initial probability.
Mercados abertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 211 mil
- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 21,3 mil
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- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
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- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
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- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology??
- A Manifold Markets cota Not by 2040 em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology? é resolvido?
- By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.