Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 83.5%
Previsores
66
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado13/08/23, 19:06 UTC2/01/28, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?
Manifold MarketsWill fully AI generated osu! beatmaps made by melokai.com will be used by mappers to create a starting base before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWhat year will the first fully AI generated video game reach 10 million players? 🤖🎮👾🕹️
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRegras
There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there.
- We will conduct a poll where we ask users to rate how commonly they interact with AI-generated pornography and resolve this question to YES if a majority of them have a significant commonplace interaction.
- The explicit NSFW movies refer to pornographic videography
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? é resolvido?
- By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there.