At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
GeopolíticaOne-OffSociedade e culturaManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 86.9%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado13/12/22, 10:59 UTC31/12/23, 23:59 UTC
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Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.
- Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.
