Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
North America 82.9%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
81
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+0.2 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado3/01/24, 14:03 UTC31/12/26, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
0.1%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
This question is copy of the other question where the options are dependent on each other.
- In case company will be multinational, place of their HQ will be considered.
- If it will be research program or joint venture by multiple companies the majority state will be considered.
- Feel free to add other continents if you feel so.
- Criteria to be used for AGI will be the same as the one in the long bet: https://longbets.org/1/
- Duration will be extended as needed.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de A company from which continent will achieve AGI first??
- A Manifold Markets cota North America em 83% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando A company from which continent will achieve AGI first? é resolvido?
- A company from which continent will achieve AGI first? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como A company from which continent will achieve AGI first? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question is copy of the other question where the options are dependent on each other.