Will we achieve AGI before Democrats win their next trifecta?
PolíticaOne-OffIAPolítica dos EUAEleição6a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 63.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 14 minutos
14/09/24, 22:09 UTC22/09/33, 04:59 UTC
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Based on an aside from this post that mentioned the possibility of this happening: https://www.secondbest.ca/p/before-the-flood
- This market resolves YES if an AGI exists, according to the market linked below, before the next Democratic governing trifecta begins.
- @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- I will defer to that market's judgement for all questions about whether a certain system is an AGI or not.
- For this market, a Democratic governing trifecta means any period of time in which the Democratic caucus holds the majority in the U.S. House and Senate, and there is a Democratic president, unless the president is a lame duck president.
- In other words, it doesn't count the brief time between the new Congress and the new president being sworn in if the incoming Congress and outgoing president are Democratic but the new president is not.
