Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 52.9%
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10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado4/03/26, 18:50 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.
Mercados abertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- € 12,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 182,3 mil
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
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- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
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KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
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- Volume total
- € 1,4 mi
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 53% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? é resolvido?
- Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?