KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Above 4.0% 87%Líder entre 15 opções
Qualidade do mercado
42 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
4,7 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
6.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
3/09/26, 01:00 UTC8/01/27, 13:29 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
Regras
If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released.
- It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31.
- The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2026.
- Values will be compared as published without rounding.
- Later revisions will not affect the outcome.
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 541,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 30,7 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 334,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- € 612,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,9 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,3 mil
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US unemployment rate at year-end 2026?
- A Kalshi cota Above 4.0% em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 é resolvido?
- US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 8 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.