KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem atividade de negociação
Dados de 8 de set. de 2026, 22:15 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
Above $500 billion 0%Líder entre 8 opções
Qualidade do mercado
39 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconhecidaSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
26/08/26, 19:00 UTC4/02/30, 13:29 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
US trade deficit for 2026?
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2027
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2032
KalshiUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegras
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2029.
Mercados abertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 541,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 30,7 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 334,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 mais resultados
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 77,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 5,5 mil
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US trade deficit for 2029?
- A Kalshi cota Above $500 billion em 0% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US trade deficit for 2029 é resolvido?
- US trade deficit for 2029 deverá ser resolvido em 4 de fevereiro de 2030.
- Como US trade deficit for 2029 é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.