KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem atividade de negociação
Dados de 8 de set. de 2026, 17:50 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
Above $500 billion 0%Líder entre 8 opções
Qualidade do mercado
31 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
—
Liquidez desconhecidaSpread
7.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 minutos
26/08/26, 15:30 UTC4/02/28, 13:25 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regras
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2027.
Mercados abertos
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 323,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 25,3 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 523 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 22 mil
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,4 mil
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US trade deficit for 2027?
- A Kalshi cota Above $500 billion em 0% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US trade deficit for 2027 é resolvido?
- US trade deficit for 2027 deverá ser resolvido em 4 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como US trade deficit for 2027 é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.