Will Ukraine recognize the separation of any portion of its territory in 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / Ucrânia2m
FutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 88%
Não 88%Qualidade do mercado
35 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
1,9 mil €
Baixa liquidezTraders
10
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0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 minutos
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This event predicts whether the Ukrainian government will formally recognize the separation or independence of any portion of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements, treaties, or legal acts by the Ukrainian government recognizing such separation.
- If Ukraine officially recognizes the separation or independence of any part of its territory during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Recognition under military duress or ambiguous statements may require intent-based assessment by Futuur.
- If official recognition is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.