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This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will formally recognize Transnistria as an independent sovereign state at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements or decrees issued by the Russian government recognizing Transnistria’s independence.
- If Russia officially declares recognition of Transnistria as an independent state during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Conditional recognition or statements short of formal recognition may require intent-based assessment by Futuur.
- If official Russian statements are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.